SpaceX Stock Is Live Today
Should You Actually Buy SPCX?
$135 a share. $1.77 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in history — and the question nobody’s fully answering.
Today is the day. SpaceX stock (SPCX) officially starts trading on the Nasdaq — priced at $135 a share, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion, and raising $75 billion in what is now the largest IPO ever recorded. Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record is gone.
But here’s the thing nobody wants to say out loud: a historic IPO and a good investment are not the same thing. The hype around SPCX is real, the story is genuinely compelling, and the Starlink numbers are impressive. But the xAI division lost $6.36 billion in 2025, the float is only 4%, and Elon Musk controls the entire voting structure. Before you buy on day one, it’s worth understanding exactly what you’re buying — and what you’re not.
Nasdaq: SPCX
largest IPO ever
$11.4B 2025 revenue
tiny — expect volatility
SpaceX files as one company, but the S-1 reveals three completely different businesses with very different financial profiles. Understanding which one is driving the valuation matters a lot.
At $1.77 trillion, SpaceX is being priced at roughly 155x its 2025 operating profit from Starlink — which is the only segment actually generating profit. That’s an extremely high multiple, even for a high-growth company. For comparison, Nvidia trades at around 35x operating income.
The bull case is that Starlink subscriber growth is accelerating fast — from 4.5 million at the start of 2025 to over 10.3 million by early 2026 — and the total addressable market for satellite internet is enormous. If Starlink hits 50–100 million subscribers over the next decade, the current valuation starts to look more reasonable.
The bear case is that you’re essentially paying a $1.77 trillion price for a business where one profitable division (Starlink) is subsidizing two money-losing ones (xAI and Space), controlled by a single person who has publicly said he’d rather keep this company private. The 4% float also means price discovery on day one will be chaotic — a small amount of buying or selling moves the stock significantly.
Analyst 12-month price targets currently sit around $165 — about 22% upside from the IPO price. But the range is wide: week-one targets run from $140 to $175, and three-month scenarios span $120 to $200.
The honest answer is that buying any stock on IPO day — especially one with only a 4% float — is more speculation than investing. The opening price could be well above $135. Early trading will likely be volatile in both directions as institutional and retail demand finds its level.
If you believe in Starlink’s long-term growth story and have a 5–10 year horizon, a small position makes sense. Starlink’s unit economics are genuinely exceptional — 63% EBITDA margins are rare at scale — and the subscriber growth trajectory is hard to argue with.
If you’re hoping to flip SPCX for a quick gain based on IPO hype, the 4% float cuts both ways. Yes, limited supply can push the price up fast. But it also means a relatively small amount of selling sends it right back down. The first week of trading will be more about supply and demand mechanics than business fundamentals.
MSCI index inclusion starts June 13 — tomorrow. That creates structural buying from index funds that track MSCI benchmarks, which provides a real demand floor in the short term. This is one of the more concrete near-term price supports for SPCX buyers today.
Nothing in this article is financial advice. IPO day buying carries significant risk, particularly with a stock that has only a 4% float and no prior public trading history. This is an analysis of publicly available information. Do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decision.